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Crypto Market
|
Crypto |
BTC |
ETH |
|
Weekly High |
$ 87,155 |
$ 3,073 |
|
Weekly Low |
$ 83,989 |
$ 2,736 |
BTC and ETH Market Insight
November ended with extreme volatility: the month began with the impact of the largest liquidation cascade in crypto history (~30% drop from ATH), but closed with a strong relief rally that took BTC from ~$80,600 low to above $91,000 (+13.7% rebound). The total crypto market cap recovered to ~$3.12T before a sharp 5–6% Asia-session pullback on 1 Dec, pushing it temporarily below $3T again. Sentiment swung from “Extreme Fear” (index ~10–15) to mild improvement (20), without ever reaching greed. The market is in a classic “good news already priced, waiting for confirmation”.
November 2025 delivered one of the wildest roller-coasters on record — from historic liquidation bloodbath to dovish relief rally, ending with a macro-induced correction. December has opened risk-off, but the baseline path remains bullish as long as the Fed delivers the expected 25 bp cut and BOJ moves slowly. Support zones are well-defined and expect continued volatility, but the bias into year-end is still toward $95–100k BTC and altcoin rotation if liquidity fears subside.
Upcoming Macro Calendar - Source: Trading Economics
Options Market
The cryptomarket last week navigated a solid rebound with BTC spot price grinding higher from $84k to $93k at high. ETH mirrored with a 12% lift to $3.1k at high. Implied volatility cooled sharply after the prior week’s panic with BTC 1-week ATM IV easing 20% WoW to 46% from 57% and ETH 1-week IV dipping similarly 20% to 65%. Realised volatility followed suit. BTC 1-week realised volatility cooled to 41% from 65% and ETH to 60% amid spot recovery and stabilisation. Front-end put skew eased alongside the rebound but remained favourable to puts, aligning with “cautious waiting” reflected by Fear & Greed index. It is interesting to consider setting up Bull Call Spread to profit from any further upside or Iron Condor to benefit from a range-bound consolidation.
Altcoins and Blockchain News
- The People's Bank of China held a meeting of the coordination mechanism for cracking down on virtual currency trading and speculation, emphasizing that activities related to virtual currencies are illegal financial activities, and reaffirmed its prohibitive policy on virtual currencies.
- The United Kingdom will require crypto exchanges to collect and report transaction records of UK customers starting in 2026, aligning with the OECD's Crypto-Asset Reporting Framework (CARF) to enhance transparency.
- Turkmenistan has passed a cryptocurrency regulation bill, effective from 2026, establishing a licensing mechanism for crypto mining and exchanges.
- South Korea's Financial Services Commission Chairman stated that the country will strictly crack down on crypto-related money laundering and will expand the scope of the “Travel Rule” to include transactions below 1 million KRW (approximately $680).
- The World Federation of Exchanges (WFE) urged the U.S. SEC not to allow crypto firms to "bypass" regulations, warning that permitting them to sell "tokenized" stocks without oversight could harm investor interests.
- Mary Daly of the U.S. Federal Reserve expressed support for a rate cut in December, pushing the probability of a December rate cut to 81%, which could impact overall market liquidity.
- The South African Reserve Bank has classified cryptocurrencies and stablecoins as new financial risks due to their lack of comprehensive regulation and expressed concern about their digital and cross-border nature potentially circumventing foreign exchange controls.
- According to DefiLlama data, the total market capitalization of stablecoins reversed its downward trend in the past week, surpassing $300 billion. USDC was the main contributor to this growth, with its circulation increasing by more than 3% in the past week.
- According to Coinglass data, the Coinbase Bitcoin Premium Index has returned to positive territory after a record 29 consecutive days of negative premium.
- Franklin Templeton’s XRP ETF has received approval for listing on the NYSE and has submitted its registration to the U.S. SEC, signaling that more institutional investment products may enter the market.
Macro
The major benchmarks rebounded for the Thanks-giving-shortened week: the DJIA added +3.2%, the S&P 500 added +3.7%, and the Nasdaq surged +4.9%. The Chinese stocks also finished the week with solid gains: the Shanghai Composite Index rose +1.40%, the CSI 300 added +1.64% and the Hang Seng index surged +2.53%.
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