Crypto Market

BTC and ETH Market Insight

The market was choppy last week but maintained a bullish undertone. Bitcoin (BTC) retreated from a high of 79K to 75K mid-week before establishing a floor at 78,000 on 1 May. It successfully closed the week above the 75K support level, keeping the broader uptrend intact. Technically, the daily and hourly charts have formed a double-bottom pattern, signaling an end to the recent downtrend and a shift toward upward momentum as buyers regain control.

Ethereum (ETH) mirrored this movement but continues to search for a catalyst to break through overhead resistance. The recent implementation of the Glamsterdam upgrade is expected to draw significant attention to ETH, potentially fueling a rally above the 2,400 mark. In contrast, Solana (SOL) remains trapped in a consolidation phase, trading lower below 85. XRPwas in a similar phase until yesterday, when it reclaimed the 1.40 level on a sudden volume spike.

In the macro space, oil and the JPY are key instruments to watch. The UAE’s official exit from OPEC on 1 is a move aimed at gaining greater control over its own supply and pricing, which will have a profound impact given its status as a top three producer. Meanwhile, USD/JPY touched 160 again, prompting a reported $35 billion intervention by the Bank of Japan. The BoJ’s upcoming interest rate decisions remain a critical event for all market stakeholders.

Upcoming Macro Calendar - Source: Trading Economics

Options Market

Over the past week ending May 3, 2026, BTC and ETH markets remained in cautious consolidation, with BTC trading around $78,300 and ETH near $2,300. Implied volatility continued to ease across 1-week and longer tenors, with BTC 1W ATM IV settling at approximately 34% and ETH 1W IV at 45%, while realized volatility stayed lower (BTC RV ~30%, ETH RV ~40%), maintaining a modestly positive volatility risk premium. Open interest stayed relatively stable. Skew retained a moderate bearish tilt, with BTC 25Δ 1W skew at 8 vol points and ETH 25Δ 1W skew at 3 vol points, though the overall downside protection demand has clearly moderated. Transaction volumes remained subdued amid thin liquidity. ETF netflows were mixed but turned positive toward the end of the week, with ETH recording a strong +44.85K inflow on May 1 and BTC showing modest net positive flows, providing underlying support to the market. With IV trending lower and skew continuing to ease, favor long call spreads targeting BTC $82k+ or ETH $2.45k+ for upside exposure or consider using protective put spreads around $75k BTC or $2.2k ETH for defense.

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Macro

The major benchmarks finished another week with strong solid gains: : the DJIA edged up +0.55%, the S&P 500 added +0.91%, and the Nasdaq advanced +1.46%. The Chinese stock market finished the week higher in the Labor’s Day holiday shortened week: the Shanghai Composite Index rose +0.8%, the CSI 300 added +0.8% while the Hang Seng index shed 0.78%.