Crypto Market

BTC and ETH Market Insight

The crypto market kicked off a bullish start to 2026, with market capitalization, liquidity and sentiment experiencing a sharp jump from the end of 2025.

Market capitalization reclaimed $3 trillion and above, reaching around $3.2 trillion by yesterday. The recovery of liquidity is reflected in the price action of BTC, which led the charge by breaking the $90,000 resistance and hovering around $93,000 at the moment. With Bitcoin dominance only a bit under 60%, and the Altcoin Index recorded at a low 25/100, the main market movement is still under the control of BTC action—even though major altcoins also contributed roughly $80 billion to the recent surge. The recovery has shifted sentiment again, lifting the Fear & Greed Index back to Neutral out of the Fear slump.

Several events could be the catalysts of the recent climb in early 2026, including: 1) strong spot crypto ETF inflows; 2) a clearer regulatory picture on crypto; and 3) major geopolitical shifts.

BTC and ETH ETFs recorded more than $600 million in net inflows, reversing the string of outflows that dominated late 2025. Trading volumes have picked up again, and the inflows signal renewed interest from both retail and institutional investors—providing real tailwind for the push through key resistance levels.

An upcoming Senate vote on a crypto market structure bill is widely viewed as a positive step. It should bring much-needed regulatory clarity, reduce uncertainty, and open the door to broader adoption.

Finally, the U.S. operation in Venezuela that resulted in the capture of President Nicolás Maduro and his wife stands out. Venezuela holds the world's largest oil reserves, and a restart of production under new control could significantly boost supply, potentially driving oil prices lower over the medium to long term. We've already seen crude prices drop sharply, adding volatility to commodities. Since Bitcoin mining is highly energy-intensive, cheaper energy costs tied to lower oil prices would improve miner profitability, encourage higher hash rates, and reduce the need for miners to sell BTC holdings just to cover expenses.

Taken together, these factors are injecting fresh capital, easing regulatory hurdles, and lowering operational costs—creating a more supportive environment for Bitcoin and the broader market.

Upcoming Macro Calendar - Source: Trading Economics

Options Market

BTC and ETH options markets showed subdued, holiday-thinned activity, peaking with a $2.2 billion Deribit expiry on January 2 that settled bullishly as calls outnumbered puts. BTC implied volatility (IV) compressed to multi-month lows of 46-50% for short-dated tenors, while realized volatility (RV) plunged to 24.9%; ETH IV stabilized post-decline with RV at 32%. That said, a higher volatility risk premium (VRP) doesn't necessarily spur gamma writing—instead, IV buying picked up as the holiday season wrapped, with markets anticipating a post-holiday volatility rebound. Put skew eased further to near-neutrality at the front end, signaling improved sentiment for additional upside.

Altcoins and Blockchain News

Macro

The major benchmarks finished the last week of 2025 lower while most of the indices finished the year with solid gains: the DJIA shed 0.7%, the S&P 500 lost 1.0%, and the Nasdaq lost 1.5%. The Chinese stock market finished a mixed week to close the year of 2025: the Shanghai Composite Index rose higher and the CSI 300 shed slightly. The Hang Seng index added +2.0%.