Crypto Market

BTC and ETH Market Insight

The cryptocurrency market's performance last week was a tug-of-war between tightening European regulations and softening US economic data. The biggest driver of the late-week rally was the US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report released on Thursday stated the US added a mere 57,000 jobs in June, coming in dramatically below expectations. This weak data effectively slashed the odds of rate-hike convictions. Since high interest rates increase the cost of holding non-yielding assets, this dovish shift weakened the dollar and sent risk assets (crypto and equities) bumping.

At the same time, the European Union's Markets in Crypto-Assets (MiCA) framework deadline hit on July 1. This triggered a massive reaction on centralized exchanges. Binance recorded over $400 million in net outflows as it withdrew its license applications in certain regions. A significant portion of this was Ethereum moving into self-custody as investors reacted to the shifting European regulatory landscape.

The Bitcoin (BTC) successfully defended its critical support level, staging a strong rebound after dropping to $57.7K before surging to clear $62K. Ethereum (ETH) climbed roughly 4.6% in the week, heavily influenced by massive exchange withdrawals to self-custody. Solana (SOL) mirrored the price action of BTC on the NFP data and remains one of the most stable beta assets, losing only around 5-6% more over the last 10 weeks compared to the much heavier losses observed in other altcoins.

Upcoming Macro Calendar - Source: Trading Economics

Options Market

Over the past week, BTC and ETH options markets calmed considerably as prices recovered from the previous week’s selloff. Implied volatility compressed notably across 1-week and longer tenors, with BTC 1W ATM IV declining from ~46% last week to ~36.8% and ETH 1W IV easing from ~57.6% to ~50.5%. Realized volatility moderated significantly (BTC RV ~35.1% vs ~58.1% last week; ETH RV ~48.3% vs ~71.3%), shifting the volatility risk premium back to modestly positive territory. Skew remained bearish but eased further compared to the prior week, with BTC 25Δ 1W skew dropping to ~16.7 vol points and ETH 25Δ 1W skew falling to ~9.95 vol points, signaling reduced demand for aggressive downside protection. ETF netflows turned mixed, with early outflows followed by selective inflows.

Altcoins and Blockchain News

Macro

The major benchmarks finished the week mostly higher: the DJIA increased 1.97%, the S&P 500 added 1.76% and the Nasdaq advanced 2.12%. The Chinese stock market finished a mixed week: the Shanghai Composite Index ended flat, the CSI 300 index slipped 1.5%, and the Hang Seng Index gained +1.69%.