Crypto Market

BTC and ETH Market Insight

Both the equity and crypto markets experienced a bloodbath after the latest Non-Farm Payroll numbers signaled a hotter-than-expected economy, despite the ongoing geopolitical strain of the US-Iran war. This classic market rout immediately wiped out any lingering hopes that a Federal Reserve rate cut was priced in for the near term. Instead, the data fueled speculation that the Fed could implement a rate hike as early as late 2026, pushing potential rate cuts out to 2027. Bond yields and the US dollar surged, while almost all beta assets, including gold, were dumped aggressively. This confirms that hopes for a rate cut have officially faded, and a "higher-for-longer" interest rate environment will persist. Investors are now moving to cash, waiting for macro tailwinds and clearer signs of stability to ride out this volatile market.

Bitcoin (BTC) suffered a 17% loss from its recent consolidation high, breaking below its bullish trendline and its 200-day moving average. A bearish outlook is firmly in place, with the next major support level set at $60K, while the prior support floor has converted into a new overhead resistance level at $68K.

Part of the crypto market's decline has been sentimentally linked to Strategy, the digital asset treasury pioneer led by Michael Saylor. The firm, which famously utilizes corporate bonds and equity to buy Bitcoin, executed a minor sale of BTCs to fund corporate preferred share distributions. While some market participants panicked over forced liquidations, the company claims and maintains its core treasury of long term bullish stance.

June is shaping up to be one of the most volatile months of 2026, with a backlog of mega IPOs and critical macroeconomic events scheduled for mid and late June. Investors should remain patient and wait for market certainty before entering any new positions.
 

Upcoming Macro Calendar - Source: Trading Economics

Options Market

Over the past week BTC and ETH markets experienced heightened volatility amid a sharp selloff fueled by hotter-than-expected NFP numbers and concern about Strategy’s sales of their BTC holdings - BTC dropped below 60k and ETH headed to $1,500. Implied volatility surged significantly across short-dated tenors, with BTC 1W ATM IV rising to ~56% and ETH 1W IV climbing to ~73.7%. Realized volatility rose even faster (BTC RV ~65.8%, ETH RV ~80%), resulting in a negative volatility risk premium as recent price moves outpaced implied expectations. Skew steepened notably into bearish territory, with BTC 25Δ 1W skew reaching 23.5 vol points and ETH 25Δ 1W skew at 14.7 vol points, reflecting strong demand for downside protection. ETF netflows remained consistently negative for both assets, adding further pressure to the market. With elevated IV and bearish skew, protective put spreads or put ratio spreads around $58k BTC or $1.5k ETH offer attractive hedging. Alternatively, long strangles or straddles could benefit from further volatility expansion if the selloff intensifies, while patient traders may look for long call spreads on BTC $65k+ or ETH $1.8k+ for a potential rebound once the panic subsides.

Altcoins and Blockchain News

• Rising US macroeconomic data and Federal Reserve policy expectations are impacting risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.
  
  
• Bitcoin and Ethereum recorded their largest weekly drop since the FTX collapse, with the cryptocurrency market cap evaporating $390 billion and total network contract liquidations exceeding $1.8 billion.
  nBitcoin spot ETFs continue to experience large-scale net outflows, with last week's $1.42 billion outflow being the third highest in history.
  
  
• Institutional giants like Bitmine and Strategy face over $10 billion in unrealized losses on crypto holdings, raising market concerns.
  
  
• The US House is advancing multiple crypto tax reform bills and the "Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Act," while the SEC has released a digital asset regulatory draft to clarify jurisdiction.
  
  
• A severe forgery vulnerability discovered in the Zcash privacy pool led to its price halving, prompting a market re-evaluation of the security narrative for privacy coins.
  
  
• Major US banks like JPMorgan plan a tokenized deposit network, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority promotes tokenized bonds, and Mastercard expands stablecoin settlement, signaling huge potential for the Real World Asset (RWA) market.
  
  
• Traditional financial institutions such as Charles Schwab and Kraken are launching regulated crypto futures and perpetuals trading services.
  
  
• The leader of Spain's largest crypto scam, FX Winning, has been arrested, highlighting strengthened global crypto regulatory enforcement.
  
  
• Global competition between Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) and stablecoins is intensifying, with the ECB emphasizing the importance of the digital euro and the Fed focusing on stablecoins' influence.

Macro

The major indices finished the week lower, led by the retreat of the tech sector: the DJIA shed 0.32%, the S&P 500 fell 2.59%, and the Nasdaq lost 4.7%. The Chinese stock market finished the week lower: the Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.00%, the CSI 300 lost 1.54% and the Hang Seng index dropped 0.88%.