Crypto Market

BTC and ETH Market Insight

Due to escalating geopolitical tensions between Iran and the US-Israel alliance, US stock markets, including the S&P 500, NASDAQ, and Dow have declined, fueling oil price surges and inflation concerns, compounded by an unexpectedly weak US jobs report.

Bitcoin (BTC) delivered strong performance over the past week, rallying as haven buying emerged alongside positive contributions from Bitcoin ETF flows. The price broke the 70K resistance level and reached a recent high of around $74,050 after weeks of accumulation, though it's currently in a modest retreat by the time of writing. BTC remains highly volatile if Middle East conflict persists, as numerous factors could sway near-term price action. Still, it has demonstrated relative strength compared to stocks over the last week, holding firm while equities faced sharp pullbacks, overturning the pattern observed through much of last year where BTC tended to follow stocks lower during declines or consolidate during rallies.

For BTC, the 60K level stands as robust support and is unlikely to break in the short term unless a major unexpected shock occurs, while near-term resistance sits around 75K (after the recent breach of 70K). Current price action suggests 60K could mark an accumulation zone for most holders but only if the stock market manages to stabilize amid rising geopolitical risks.

Ethereum (ETH) is gradually recovering from levels a month ago, with put volume declining and selling pressure easing. Key support for ETH lies around $1.7K–$1.9K, with resistance near $2K–$2.3K. The ETH/BTC ratio is testing lower levels (around 0.03), with potential to push higher if catalysts emerge.

Overall, the current financial markets are dominated by oil price movements, regardless of the asset class. Crude oil could spike toward $120 per barrel in the short term, as the rally shows little sign of stopping amid production cuts from major Middle Eastern producers and disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. This surge is pressuring G7 nations to consider releasing strategic petroleum reserves to stabilize markets, though a sustained, long-term solution remains elusive if the conflict drags on. Investors and traders should be cautious over long-term positions in this volatile environment and prioritize short-term flexibility to preserve capital.

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Options Market

Following an initial slump triggered by the U.S. strikes on Iran over the weekend, both BTC and ETH surged to one-month highs—testing $74k and $2.2k respectively—as President Trump’s call for urgent passage of the Clarity Act boosted market sentiment. That said, fragility in sentiment persisted. The market ended the week only modestly higher after a pullback during Friday’s U.S. trading session. Implied volatility continued to climb in tandem with rising realized volatility, with BTC one-week ATM IV reaching 56% and ETH climbing to 71%. Skew eased slightly but retained a mild bearish tilt. On a positive note, ETF netflows turned strongly positive, adding +$820 million for BTC and +$245 million for ETH—the strongest weekly inflows since early February—driven by BlackRock and Fidelity.

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Macro

The ongoing escalation of tensions between the US and Iran, combined with the unexpectedly poor NFP data, has raised concerns in the market about ‘stagflation’. WTI crude oil prices surged to $93, with a weekly increase of nearly 36%. Last week, all three major US stock indices experienced declines: the S&P 500 index fell by 2.02%, the DJIA by 2.69%, and the Nasdaq by 1.27%, marking the worst weekly performance in a year. Chinese stock markets showed greater resilience to pressure: the CSI 300 index dropped by 1.07%, the Shanghai Composite index by 0.93%, and the Hang Seng index by 3.28%.