Crypto Market

BTC and ETH Market Insight

Last week, the market was heavily impacted by U.S. jobless claims data, which came in stronger than expected. This dashed the market's lingering hopes for an imminent Federal Reserve rate cut from the current 3.50%–3.75% range, a sentiment further weighed down by the ongoing uncertainty surrounding the situation in Iran. The bond market reacted aggressively, with long-dated Treasury yields rising sharply.

Despite macro headwinds from the energy sector where crude oil temporarily surged above $125 per barrel. Bitcoin (BTC) showed remarkable decoupling strength. It successfully breached the massive psychological resistance level of $80,000. However, BTC later retreated below the $80,000 mark as momentum could not sustain a definitive close above resistance, though there is optimism that the baseline support level will shift from $75,000 to $80,000 if the price can consolidate higher.

Ethereum (ETH) followed a similar choppy trajectory and failed to gain significant traction; it pushed toward $2,370 mid-week but bled back down to its $2,300 support level. Meanwhile, other altcoins painted a divergent picture. Solana (SOL) exhibited the characteristics of a high-beta asset, breaking past the $90 level and recording double-digit gains. XRP also showed life, bouncing from $1.38 to $1.45 before continuing to oscillate within that range.

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Options Market

Over the past week, BTC and ETH showed some divergence, with Bitcoin climbing above the $81,000 mark while Ethereum hovered near $2,350. Implied volatility continued to ease across 1-week and longer tenors, with BTC 1W ATM IV settling at ~35% and ETH 1W IV at ~45%. Realized volatility remained lower (BTC RV ~30%, ETH RV ~36–40%), resulting in a modestly positive volatility risk premium. Open interest stayed relatively stable. Skew retained a moderate bearish tilt, with BTC 25Δ 1W skew at around 11.5 vol points and ETH 25Δ 1W skew at 3.3 vol points, though demand for aggressive downside protection continued to moderate. ETF netflows started the week positively but stalled toward the end, signaling weakening institutional support.

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Macro

The major indices finished another week with strong solid gains: : the DJIA edged up +0.22%, the S&P 500 added +2.33%, and the Nasdaq advanced +4.50%. The Chinese stock market rallied in the first week after Labor’s Day holiday, boosted by the strong earnings reports: the Shanghai Composite Index rose +1.65%, the CSI 300 gained +1.34% and the Hang Seng index advanced +2.39%.