Crypto Market

BTC and ETH Market Insight

After a rebound at the beginning of the month, the market remained in a narrow range last week, with Bitcoin prices fluctuating slightly between $62,000 and $65,000. In contrast to the relative calm in the market, geopolitical tensions continued to escalate. Last Wednesday, the U.S. and Iran exchanged fire once again, pushing Brent crude prices up to $80 at one point. Although the market has partially priced in the risk premium from the US-Iran tensions and Bitcoin prices quickly recovered after a brief decline, persistently high energy prices and uncertainties regarding Iran have heightened inflation concerns, further dampening expectations of interest rate cuts.

Beyond the macro perspective, last Tuesday, MicroStrategy founder Michael Saylor announced that the company had sold 3,588 Bitcoins to pay preferred stock dividends and bolster its dollar reserves. This largest historical divestment may essentially change the company’s role in the market — MicroStrategy is no longer a net demand driver of Bitcoin, but also a potential source of selling pressure. At the same time, the company’s remaining Bitcoin holdings are showing an unrealized loss of over $11 billion, further increasing market uncertainty around related risks.

Upcoming Macro Calendar - Source: Trading Economics

Options Market

Over the past week, BTC and ETH options markets calmed considerably as prices recovered from the previous week’s selloff. Implied volatility compressed notably across 1-week and longer tenors, with BTC 1W ATM IV declining from ~46% last week to ~36.8% and ETH 1W IV easing from ~57.6% to ~50.5%. Realized volatility moderated significantly (BTC RV ~35.1% vs ~58.1% last week; ETH RV ~48.3% vs ~71.3%), shifting the volatility risk premium back to modestly positive territory. Skew remained bearish but eased further compared to the prior week, with BTC 25Δ 1W skew dropping to ~16.7 vol points and ETH 25Δ 1W skew falling to ~9.95 vol points, signaling reduced demand for aggressive downside protection. ETF netflows turned mixed, with early outflows followed by selective inflows.

Altcoins and Blockchain News

• A merchant ship was attacked again in the Strait of Hormuz on Saturday local time, prompting the U.S. to launch a new round of strikes against Iranian targets. Early on the 12th, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy (IRGC Navy) announced that the Strait of Hormuz is closed effective immediately, and no vessels are allowed to pass. 
  
  
• The Kobeissi Letter stated that the U.S. economy is becoming increasingly reliant on AI investment. AI investment currently accounts for over 25% of the contribution to U.S. GDP growth. 
  
  
• Blockstream CEO Adam Back and MicroStrategy founder Michael Saylor have both posted statements expressing their opposition to the BIP 110 proposal.
  
  
• Binance's June futures trading volume rose to approximately $1.63 trillion, hitting its highest level since 2026. 
  
  
• TrueDAO, an AI-driven decentralized finance (DeFi) infrastructure project, announced the completion of a $10 million strategic funding round, led by Brevan Howard Digital, with participation from Zee Prime Capital, Jump Capital, and others.
  
  
• Robinhood Chain processed over 17 million transactions in its first week, with active addresses approaching 350,000, a protocol TVL of approximately $250 million, and cumulative DEX trading volume surpassing $1 billion.
  
  
• The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) plans to block the Chicago Mercantile Exchange's (CME) application for a fast-tracked listing of 24/7 oil contracts, citing concerns that the energy market is not yet prepared for an influx of round-the-clock derivative contracts.
  
  
• Crypto trading platform AscendEX has issued an announcement stating it will cease operations, attributing the decision to the current market environment and the impact of the EU's Markets in Crypto-Assets (MiCA) regulation. 
  
  

Macro

The major indices finished the week with solid gains: the DJIA surged 2.0%, the S&P 500 advanced 1.23% and the Nasdaq added 1.7%. The Chinese stock market finished a mixed week: the Shanghai Composite Index slipped 1.17, the CSI 300 index fell 1.27%, while the Hang Seng Index surged 3.53%