Crypto Market

BTC and ETH Market Insight

The ongoing US-Iran conflict and the situation in the Strait of Hormuz have created a risk-off environment for traditional markets. Yet the crypto market has shown resilience and partial decoupling from the US stock market. BTC, ETH, and many altcoins have outperformed stocks and gold in spots, with BTC standing at $73K after an early attempt to break the $75K resistance.

ETF flows and institutional accumulation remain the main drivers pushing the price out of the consolidation phase during these volatile moments. MicroStrategy recently announced another batch of purchases; their position now reportedly holds more than 738,000 BTC. Strong net inflows into the Spot Bitcoin ETFs are another key force, reflecting returning risk appetite and capital rotation. These inflows have reversed the net outflows observed earlier in the period and helped form a new support level around $70K.

The FOMC meeting this week is just as important as developments in the US-Iran conflict. Although rates are almost certain to remain on hold (at 3.50–3.75%), with a 99.2% probability according to market pricing, the updated dot plot and Powell’s press conference will set the tone for the coming months though. If the Fed leans accommodative and releases dovish signals, BTC could target $75K with potential extension toward $80K, while ETH might follow through and aim for $2,200. However, given the war-driven spike in oil prices and ongoing uncertainty around tariffs, there is a chance the tone turns hawkish with no clear easing signal. This could trigger a mild pullback, with BTC likely breaking below $70K and finding support around $68K. Investors should also watch for a possible “sell the news” dip ahead of the meeting.

Another issue worth monitoring is the growing concern in the US private credit market. Several large asset management firms have reportedly limited withdrawals and been forced to sell loans at a discount amid worries that AI disruption is hurting certain companies and contributing to credit defaults.

Overall, the market remains cautiously bullish with elevated volatility. Crypto has been acting as a relative safe haven during the conflict, while US stocks have taken a massive hit.

Upcoming Macro Calendar - Source: Trading Economics

Options Market

Over the past week ending March 14, 2026, BTC and ETH options markets showed resilience amid geopolitical tensions. Both assets rebounded sharply from an initial weekend slump triggered by U.S. strikes on Iran, testing one-month highs near $74k for BTC and $2.2k for ETH, before a mild Friday pullback. While this reflects improving sentiment, the rally still lacks strong catalysts for a sustained bullish reversal. Implied volatility stabilized after an early spike, trading roughly in line with realized volatility, with BTC around 51% across the curve and ETH near 70%. Skew retained a bearish tilt, indicating continued demand for downside protection. Following the trend from last week, ETF netflows remained solidly positive, with BTC recording consecutive inflows throughout the week while ETH posted mixed daily flows but still ended in net positive territory.

Altcoins and Blockchain News

Macro

The major benchmarks finished the week lower with the uncertainty against the Middle East conflict: the DJIA lost 2.0%, the S&P 500 dropped 1.6%, and the Nasdaq shed 1.3%. The Chinese stock market finished a mixed week given the increasing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East: the Shanghai Composite Index lost 0.7%, the CSI 300 edged up 0.19%, and the Hang Seng index dropped 1.13%.