Crypto Market

BTC and ETH Market Insight

Upcoming Macro Calendar - Source: Trading Economics

Options Market

Over the past week, the cryptocurrency options market experienced a pronounced volatility spike and an intensification of defensive hedging, signaling an escalation of fear compared to the prior week's tentative consolidation. BTC 1W ATM implied volatility (IV) surged to 39.74%, opening up a positive Volatility Risk Premium (VRP) with a 2.35% spread over its 37.71% realized volatility (RV). ETH exhibited even more severe structural stress, with its 1W ATM IV catapulting to 55.34% and its IV-RV spread widening significantly to a 7.12% premium over a 47.89% RV.

This systemic anxiety was starkly confirmed on the 25Δ options skew surface. While last week's skews already reflected a protective put premium (+10.9% for BTC and +10.44% for ETH), this week saw sentiment deteriorate further as the 1W skew climbed to +11.42% for BTC and a steep +15.64% for ETH, demonstrating an aggressive, high-conviction bid for downside protection across the board.

After enjoying modest net inflows earlier in the week (peaking at +2.20K BTC on Oct 27), the Bitcoin spot ETF market suffered a brutal reversal on October 30th, printing a net outflow of -8.25K BTC, driven by heavy selling in GBTC, IBIT, and FBTC. The Ethereum spot ETF market fared far worse, enduring relentless institutional liquidation throughout the entire week and culminating in a staggering -69.13K ETH net outflow on October 30th, led primarily by aggressive distribution from BlackRock’s ETHA and Grayscale’s vehicles.

Altcoins and Blockchain News

• ICE and Trade.xyz plan to bring Hyperliquid-based perpetual contracts to the U.S. If regulatory approval is obtained, ICE will operate a U.S.-regulated version of the Trade.xyz market.
• According to the Financial Times, OpenAI has lowered the target size of its latest funding round by $10 billion and is currently racing to finalize the deal.
• Tether released its Q3 2026 financial report, reporting net operating profit of $1.5 billion, essentially flat compared with the previous quarter, with cumulative net operating profit of $4.5 billion in the first three quarters. Its main sources of revenue remain U.S. short-term Treasury securities and reverse repurchase agreements.
• Strategy Executive Chairman Michael Saylor said on the third-quarter earnings call that the company can use its existing balance sheet to create up to $30 billion in digital credit to support further Bitcoin purchases without additional common stock financing.
• Polymarket launched five-minute cryptocurrency up-or-down prediction contracts on its regulated U.S. platform.
• Sony Group announced the launch on October 29 of the global "Sony Onchain Entertainment Incubation Program," aimed at creators and startups worldwide and supporting the development of entertainment-related products and services based on the Soneium blockchain.

Macro

U.S. stocks finished mixed to lower. The S&P 500 fell 0.57% to 7,580, the Nasdaq dropped 2.0% to 25,437, and the Dow slipped 0.85% to 51,770. The Russell 2000 rose 1.3% as investors rotated into small-caps and value names.

The Federal Reserve held rates at 3.75%–4.00% on October 28 in a 10–2 vote, with two members preferring a hike. Markets viewed the outcome as cautiously hawkish.

Tech and AI-related stocks led the declines after earnings from Alphabet and Amazon reignited concerns over heavy capital spending. Intel plunged nearly 29% on Friday following weak guidance, driving a sharp late-week sell-off in the Nasdaq.

The 10-year Treasury yield eased to about 4.93%. The week marked a third consecutive decline for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq amid ongoing scrutiny of AI investments and inflation risks.