Crypto Market

BTC and ETH Market Insight

The cryptocurrency market is undergoing a structural recovery following better than expected CPI and PPI prints, which have signaled cooling inflation and lowered the near-term probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike. This softer price index data has prompted investors to pivot back to a risk-on stance, overriding escalating geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran.

Consequently, Bitcoin (BTC) has broken away from its psychological $60,000 baseline to hover steadily around the $64,000 – $65,000 zone. The technical reclamation of the 200-day Moving Average (MA) further validates a macro-bottoming structure. Furthermore, option skews are tilting away from puts toward calls, confirming that downside protection demands are fading. Coupled with modest, persistent ETF inflows, a short-term rally targeting the $68,000 to $70,000 resistance block seems firmly on track.

Implied volatility across 1-month and 6-month horizons remains at historic lows, as suppressed premiums reflect a broader "wait-and-see" consensus. In the altcoin space, Ethereum (ETH) and Solana (SOL) have both outpaced BTC in recent sessions. ETH has demonstrated superior upward momentum, rallying from its recent low of $1,540 to trade over $1,800, setting up a potential breakout test toward the $2,000 - $2,400 range. Meanwhile, Solana continues to show notable resilience in this bottoming phase, consolidating firmly within its established macro range of $70 to $100.

Looking ahead, heightened volatility is expected in the upcoming weeks. Earnings releases from the majority of the "Magnificent 7" tech giants will likely dictate broader market direction, serving as a key test of whether recent AI-driven market momentum can be sustained.

Options Market

The week started on a weak note as renewed US-Iran tensions weighed on market sentiment. However, a softer-than-expected CPI print on July 14 eased pressure on the Fed and fueled a rally in risk assets, driving BTC to around $65.6k at high and ETH to approximately $1,950 at peak. Implied volatility eased modestly across 1-week and longer tenors, with BTC 1W ATM IV declining from ~36.8% to ~33.0% and ETH 1W IV falling from ~46.3% to ~44.4%. Realized volatility also moderated (BTC RV ~29.4%, ETH RV ~45.5%), keeping the volatility risk premium modestly positive. Skew continued to ease overall, with BTC 25Δ 1W skew dropping to ~8.7 vol points while ETH 25Δ 1W skew stood at ~8.9 vol points. ETF netflows were mixed during the week but turned net positive overall.

Altcoins and Blockchain News

Macro

The major benchmarks finished the week lower with the retreat of tech giants: the DJIA slipped 0.93%, the S&P 500 fell 1.60% and the Nasdaq lost 2.9%. The Chinese stock market also suffered from a bloody week: the Shanghai Composite Index dropped 5.81%, the CSI 300 index fell 5.26%, while the Hang Seng Index gained 1.60%.