Crypto Market

BTC and ETH Market Insight

Upcoming Macro Calendar - Source: Trading Economics

Options Market

Over the past week, BTC and ETH options markets experienced elevated volatility mid-week around the key Clarity Act vote. Although the Act failed to pass, a strong relief rally on Friday drove prices higher. BTC climbed from around $75,000 last week to approximately $84,000, while ETH advanced from ~$2,316 to around $2,730. Implied volatility eased modestly for BTC, with 1W ATM IV declining from ~34.8% to ~31.3%, while ETH 1W IV held steady near ~46.6% (little changed from ~46.9%). Realized volatility rose for BTC (RV ~34.8%), flipping its volatility risk premium back into negative territory, whereas ETH RV moderated to ~43.5%, turning its VRP positive. Skew steepened further into call territory compared with last week’s milder readings, with BTC 25Δ 1W skew deepening to –9.9% and ETH 25Δ 1W skew to –7.5%, reflecting strong demand for upside exposure during the Friday rally. ETF netflows were mixed earlier in the week but turned positive toward the weekend for both assets. With the Friday relief rally pushing skew deeper into call bias and BTC’s VRP turning negative again, long call spreads or call ratio structures (e.g., BTC $85k–$90k or ETH $2.75k–$2.90k) remain attractive for continued upside participation with defined risk.

Altcoins and Blockchain News

• Around September 15, the U.S. Senate's cloture vote on the Digital Asset Market CLARITY Act failed (approx. 49-50), missing the 60-vote threshold and stalling the bill. Markets faced temporary pressure, with BTC briefly breaking key support levels.
  
  
• On September 16, the Federal Reserve raised rates by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00%, the first hike in over three years, signaling possible further tightening. Crypto markets initially dipped but rebounded quickly.
  
  
• Around September 17–18, the CFTC independently submitted proposed crypto asset trading and market rules to the White House for review, bypassing the stalled congressional process.
  
  
• On September 18 (Friday), U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded approximately $433 million in net inflows, reversing prior two-day outflows and resulting in a modest weekly net inflow. Ethereum ETFs saw significant net outflows.
  
  
• The SEC introduced a five-year Innovation Exemption for tokenized U.S. stocks, enabling eligible tokenized equities to trade via AMMs on public blockchains. This boosted RWA narratives and related DEX activity (e.g., Uniswap’s tokenized stock TVL growth).
  
  
• Ava Labs stated that the New York Stock Exchange had tested Avalanche technology for approximately one year for tokenized securities infrastructure. AVAX subsequently surged, briefly breaking above $10.
  
  
• Stablecoin firm Bastion received a conditional OCC national trust bank charter, advancing federal oversight of stablecoins.
  
  
• Around September 20, Fetch.ai (ASI Alliance) suffered a hack on its token migration/bridge contracts, with approximately $1.53 million in FET stolen (plus NuNet losses), totaling around $2 million. Affected wallets/contracts were disabled and a preliminary analysis released.

Macro

The major indices finished the week mixed upon the Federal Reserve’s first rate increase since 2023 and increasing oil price tension: the DJIA lost 1.69%, the S&P 500 shed 0.08%, and the Nasdaq gained 0.72%. The Chinese stock market also finished a mixed week: the Shanghai Composite Index added 0.61%, the CSI 300 shed 0.06% and the Hang Seng index fell 0.02%.