Crypto Market

BTC and ETH Market Insight

The U.S.–Iran peace framework is making steady progress following the signing of a preliminary Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) by both nations. However, broader regional tensions remain high after a series of Israeli airstrikes in Lebanon were reported just hours after the diplomatic announcement, keeping markets on edge.

Macroeconomic sentiment faced downward pressure following newly appointed Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s first post-FOMC press conference. Warsh firmly established that conquering inflation is his absolute priority, noting that the 2% PCE target remains far from being reached. In a notable shift, Warsh refused to provide forward guidance or comment on the dot plot, stating that such metrics are ill-suited for the current economic environment. This hawkish tone caught investors off guard, prompting the market to price in a potential defensive interest rate hike as early as September, an acceleration from previous market timelines. Analysts expect asset prices to remain volatile until both the domestic monetary trajectory and the U.S.–Iran geopolitical situation achieves clearer resolution.

Bitcoin (BTC) closed the week anchored around $64,000. After a brief rally toward the $72,000 resistance level, BTC retreated into a consolidation range between $62,000 and $65,000, though its vital psychological floor at $60,000 continues to hold as major support. Meanwhile, Ethereum (ETH) maintained a firm footing above $1,700, even as capital began rotating into higher-beta crypto assets like Solana (SOL) and HYPE. While XRP remains locked in a tight consolidation pattern, Solana’s market structure looks increasingly healthy. Sustained positive inflows have kept SOL safely above the $70–$73 support zone, leaving it well-positioned for a potential breakout rally.

Upcoming Macro Calendar - Source: Trading Economics

Options Market

Earlier in the week, BTC and ETH rallied on news of a preliminary US-Iran peace framework agreement, but the upward momentum faded as Fed Chair Warsh delivered a hawkish message during his first FOMC meeting. Both assets ultimately ended the week largely flat. Implied volatility continued to ease across 1-week and longer tenors, with BTC 1W ATM IV declining to ~35.8% and ETH 1W IV settling around 52.1%. Realized volatility remained modestly higher (BTC RV ~39.6%, ETH RV ~55.8%), resulting in a mildly negative volatility risk premium. Put skew steepened on the downside ticks, with BTC 25Δ 1W skew rising to ~16.7 vol points and ETH 25Δ 1W skew at ~14.4 vol points, reflecting persistent and strong demand for downside protection. ETF netflows were mixed for both assets, indicating selective and cautious institutional positioning.

Altcoins and Blockchain News

• According to Galaxy Research data, US-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded approximately $6.35 billion in net outflows over the past 30 trading days. This marks the largest 30-day capital outflow since their launch in January 2024.
  
  
• Assets under Coinbase have become the primary source of inflows for the decentralized lending protocol Morpho. USDC and cbBTC combined account for 53% of Morpho's total platform deposits. Specifically, Coinbase users contributed 83% of the cbBTC deposits and 59% of the USDC deposits.
  
  
• Secret Network lost $4.67 million due to a cross-chain vulnerability. The exploit went completely undetected for seven days.
  
  
• The "Stretch" variable-rate perpetual preferred stock (STRC) issued by Strategy experienced a severe de-pegging, hitting a new recent low. It plummeted to a low of $82.70 on Thursday before closing at $88.59.
  
  
• Avalanche announced the launch of the Avalanche Payments Collective. 28 organizations have already joined the alliance to collaborate on building payment infrastructure on the Avalanche network.
  
  
• Stablecoin and fiat financial infrastructure platform Range completed an $8.3 million Series A funding round, bringing its total funding to $11 million. The oversubscribed round saw participation from traditional fintech funds TX Ventures and SixThirty, alongside crypto-native funds Maven 11 Capital and Onigiri Capital.
  
  
• Fidelity Investments officially launched the "Fidelity Reserves Digital Fund." The fund aims to provide reserve asset management services for stablecoin issuers and institutional investors, tapping into the growing demand driven by rapid stablecoin expansion.
  
  
• Aster announced an update to the ASTER token economic model, significantly raising its buyback and burn ratio to 198%.

Macro

The major indices finished the week higher, led by the U.S. and Iran signing a memorandum of understanding: the DJIA edged up 0.71%, the S&P 500 added +0.93%, and the Nasdaq increased +2.43%. The Chinese stock market finished a mixed week: the Shanghai Composite Index rose +1.46%, the CSI 300 advanced +3.44% while the Hang Seng index fell 3.21%.