Crypto Market

BTC and ETH Market Insight

Bitcoin (BTC) rallied over the weekend but remained short of the $70,000 level, trading instead in a lower band between $65,000 and $68,000 as it was pressured by risk-off flows and geopolitical risk sentiment. Both $70,000 and $80,000 have formed strong resistance levels for BTC to break and rally; however, a catalyst is needed to move price action under the current FUD (Fear, Uncertainty, and Doubt) environment that is clouding the market and restraining trading activity in both ETFs and spot markets. In short, BTC stabilized marginally later in the week with a slight rebound off the "lower lows" seen weeks ago, but it is still struggling to reclaim prior highs.

Ethereum (ETH) is currently below the $2,000 level, sitting at approximately $1,800. This drawdown is not isolated, as the entire market has fallen more than 3% during the week causing massive liquidations. This indicates a violent unwinding of leveraged positions, ranging from exchanges' Automatic Deleveraging (ADL) to traders' manual exits, as participants move to reduce exposure for risk management. Despite this, BTC and ETH recorded much higher trading volumes compared to last week. While the Fear & Greed Index is attempting to slowly move out of Extreme Fear territory, the elevated volume signals a clash between strong conviction from sellers and the determination of buyers to accumulate tokens at what they perceive as deep undervaluation signals, based on historical price deviations and declining MVRV Z-scores and ratios.

The following weeks will be crucial for the crypto market. Investors and traders should closely monitor President Trump’s actions and announcements; he recently claimed he would impose an even higher 15% global tariff after the U.S. Supreme Court overturned his previous tariff threats on Friday. Additionally, escalating tensions between the U.S. and Iran remain a critical concern. Polymarket currently indicates a more than 50% chance that the U.S. might initiate drone, missile, or air strikes on Iranian soil by the end of March. These events are expected to move BTC and ETH prices violently, with no clear indication of direction under current speculation. Finally, all industry stakeholders should be highly alert for Nvidia’s earnings report on Wednesday, February 25, to see how the market digests their performance, particularly given public concerns over an "AI bubble". Historically, if Nvidia misses targets or reflects negative signals, the broader market tends to shake and move south; conversely, a beat could provide the positive momentum the market needs.

Upcoming Macro Calendar - Source: Trading Economics

Options Market

Crypto markets showed signs of stabilization post-selloff with a $2.5 billion Deribit expiry on February 20, featuring BTC's put-call ratio at 0.57 (max pain $70k) and ETH's at 0.73 ($2.025k), reflecting call dominance amid persistent put flows for downside protection as prices hovered around $67k for BTC and $1.95k for ETH. Implied volatility (IV) remained largely unchanged, with BTC's main-term at ~48% versus decreasing realized volatility (RV) in the low-40s, while ETH's IV held around 65% against RV in the low-50s. Skew stayed bearish, underscoring ongoing defensive hedging. ETF netflows continued to be negative for the holiday-shortened trading week.

Altcoins and Blockchain News

Macro

The major indices finished the week higher, rebounding from lingering AI spending concerns amid mixed economic data and a favorable Supreme Court ruling on tariffs: the DJIA gained 0.3% , the S&P 500 rose 1.1% , and the Nasdaq climbed 1.5% . The Chinese stock market was closed for the week during the Chinese New Year holiday. The Hang Seng index rose 0.5% in limited half-day trading on Monday before the multi-day closure. A fresh wave of uncertainty hit the market after the Supreme Court ruling on Friday as Trump said he would impose new global levies of 15% on goods entering the US.