Crypto Market

BTC and ETH Market Insight

Last week was highly volatile for the financial market. Bitcoin briefly surged to around $75,000 before reversing sharply and sliding to the mid-to-high $68,000 range over the weekend amid the ongoing US-Iran war.

The Fed and Chair Powell emphasized that rising oil prices would affect markets and fuel renewed inflation concerns. With fears of unexpectedly sticky inflation resurfacing, rate-cut expectations have shifted dramatically: the market now prices in closer to zero cuts for the year (down from the prior outlook of at least one), and a rate hike isn't entirely ruled out if inflation pressures intensify. This hawkish messaging hit risk assets hard, especially against the backdrop of geopolitical uncertainty.

In typical geopolitical crises, Treasuries would act as a safe haven, driving bond prices up and yields down. However, inflation and potential rate hike worries have outweighed safe-haven demand, leading to net selling pressure, particularly on longer-duration bonds. Yields rose sharply as investors dumped Treasuries, either to chase higher-return opportunities or to hold cash until greater clarity emerges in this uncertain environment.

Equities followed bonds lower, accelerating after reports that the US is weighing strikes or operations targeting Kharg Island to pressure Iran into negotiations and secure the Strait of Hormuz. Such developments suggest the war could prolong and potentially escalate, dashing hopes for a quick resolution. Rising Treasury yields signal higher corporate borrowing costs ahead, which compresses enterprise valuations particularly in growth-oriented sectors reliant on cheap financing. This dynamic has weighed heavily on the NASDAQ and related areas like technology and semiconductors, amplifying the broader market downturn. As a result, even the S&P 500 fell below its 200-day moving average on Thursday, a bearish technical signal that accelerated selling into Friday.

Compounding the pressure, March 20 marked a "triple witching" event — when stock options, index futures, and index options all expire simultaneously. This typically boosts trading volume and volatility as traders close or roll positions. With these overlapping pressures, markets are likely to face extreme short term volatility and a bearish bias. Investors and traders should maintain liquidity on hand to respond quickly to any developments.

Options Market

Over the past week ending March 14, 2026, BTC and ETH options markets showed resilience amid geopolitical tensions. Both assets rebounded sharply from an initial weekend slump triggered by U.S. strikes on Iran, testing one-month highs near $74k for BTC and $2.2k for ETH, before a mild Friday pullback. While this reflects improving sentiment, the rally still lacks strong catalysts for a sustained bullish reversal. Implied volatility stabilized after an early spike, trading roughly in line with realized volatility, with BTC around 51% across the curve and ETH near 70%. Skew retained a bearish tilt, indicating continued demand for downside protection. Following the trend from last week, ETF netflows remained solidly positive, with BTC recording consecutive inflows throughout the week while ETH posted mixed daily flows but still ended in net positive territory.

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Macro

The major benchmarks finished the week lower with the uncertainty against U.S-Iran strikes and the resulting uncertainty in oil prices: the DJIA lost 2.1%, the S&P 500 dropped 1.9%, and the Nasdaq fell 2.1%. The Chinese stock market also closed lower with persistent concerns tied to the Middle East geopolitical tensions: the Shanghai Composite Index lost 3.38%, the CSI 300 fell 2.19%, and the Hang Seng index shed 0.74%.