Crypto Market

BTC and ETH Market Insight

Upcoming Macro Calendar - Source: Trading Economics

Options Market

Over the past week, BTC and ETH options markets experienced a sharp volatility spike amid a strong price rally, a clear shift from the calm, low-vol environment of the prior week. Spot prices surged significantly, with BTC climbing from around $63,000 to approximately 79,500 at high and ETH rising from ~1,880 to around $2,550 at high. Implied volatility expanded aggressively across short tenors, with BTC 1W ATM IV jumping from ~25.2% last week to ~44.6–46.1% and ETH 1W IV rising from ~33.0% to ~60.9–63.8%. Realized volatility surged even higher (BTC RV ~53.7%, ETH RV ~78.3%), driving the volatility risk premium deeply negative. Skew flipped from moderately bearish (put-biased) last week to call-biased, with BTC 25Δ 1W skew at –7.6% and ETH 25Δ 1W skew at –8.5%, reflecting heavy demand for upside exposure during the rally. ETF netflows turned strongly positive for both assets, providing solid institutional support after the mixed-to-negative flows of the previous week. With VRP now negative and vol elevated after a large directional move, aggressive premium-selling is less attractive until volatility compresses. Consider long call spreads or call ratio structures to play continued upside with defined risk (e.g., BTC 80k-85k or ETH 2.5k-2.7k). Protective put spreads can still be used for downside insurance at relatively cheaper levels given the current call skew.

Altcoins and Blockchain News

• The US SEC proposes new cryptocurrency issuance rules, including financing exemptions and a safe harbor provision; Grayscale suggests these rules could benefit ETH, SOL, and BNB, driving value back on-chain.
  
  
• US CFTC Chairman states the crypto industry will still receive market structure rules even if the CLARITY Act isn't passed; Trump urges Congress to advance the bill at a White House crypto event and mentions CFTC is pushing to introduce Hyperliquid compliantly to the US.
  
  
• Shanghai's "Digital Shanghai" 15th Five-Year Plan: Research on Web3.0 Innovation Pilot Zone Mechanism to be conducted.
  
  
• Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a total net inflow of $606 million yesterday, and Ethereum spot ETFs saw a total net inflow of $221 million; however, Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded a net outflow of $390 million last week, indicating fluctuations in institutional capital flows.
  
  
• Bridgewater Founder Ray Dalio: US bond risks are rising, suggests reducing bonds, increasing gold, and a small amount of Bitcoin.
  
  
• Institutionalization of the South Korean crypto market accelerates: 5 major exchanges now have 6,590 corporate accounts, with Bithumb accounting for nearly half.
  
  
• The US Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB) proposes treating eligible stablecoins as "cash equivalents."
  
  
• Grayscale: Bitcoin may experience a cycle turning point this week, with historical patterns suggesting a long-term bottom may have formed.
  
  
• Changpeng Zhao: Tokenization is one of the best ways to attract foreign direct investment, calling for "tokenizing everything."
  
  
• Macro Outlook Next Week: Warsh to appear at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting, with global monetary policy developments under close watch.

Macro

The major indices finished the week lower. The DJIA slipped 0.85%, the S&P 500 shed 1.43%, and the Nasdaq dropped 2.05%.