Crypto Market

BTC and ETH Market Insight

Upcoming Macro Calendar - Source: Trading Economics

Options Market

Over the past week, the BTC and ETH markets saw prices face renewed downside momentum after brief mid-week recovery attempts, with BTC breaking below 81,000 and ETH failing to reclaim 2,500 to retest support around 2,350. BTC 1W ATM IV rose modestly from ~29.4% to 31.83%, while ETH 1W IV experienced a mild increase from ~42.1% to 44.98%, showing that the market refrained from pricing in severe panic despite the spot price breakdown. 1W Volatility Risk Premium (VRP) flipped to positive territory for both assets as the 1W IV vs. RV spread reached +5.23% for BTC and +3.66% for ETH. Sentiment, however, became deeply protective, evidenced by the 25Δ 1W options skew shifting significantly higher into positive territory to reveal a clear put premium: BTC 1W skew rose to +10.9% and ETH 1W skew sat at +10.44%.

Altcoins and Blockchain News

• Bitcoin Spot ETFs saw a net outflow of $635 million yesterday, with BlackRock's IBIT leading with a $254 million outflow.
• The U.S. IRS plans to launch a reformed voluntary disclosure program by the end of November, with no separate procedure for cryptocurrencies.
• QCP Capital: AI infrastructure credit pressure is spreading and dragging down the crypto market.
• SEC announced 3 companies planning to operate tokenized securities trading platforms under innovation exemptions.
• Microsoft, Google, and 16 other companies oppose the tokenized trading of their stocks on the OKX and ICE joint venture platform.
• Bitcoin derivatives market structure changes: Options open interest ratio rises to nearly 60%, indicating increased demand for risk management.
• Coinbase report: Stablecoins transferred over $400 million per hour on average in Q3, with 73% of transactions occurring outside U.S. banking hours.
• JPMorgan extends its deposit token, JPM Coin, to the Ethereum network, opening it to institutional clients.
• Arthur Hayes: Has liquidated ETH, ENA, UNI, and other tokens, plans to observe the market for now.
• Argentine court dismisses criminal investigation into President Milei and his sister regarding the LIBRA crypto case.

Macro

The major indices finished a mixed week: the DJIA advanced +0.41%, the S&P 500 shed 0.47%, and the Nasdaq lost 0.71%. The Chinese stock market declined for the week but came up with a strong rebound on Friday: the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.69%, the CSI 300 lost 1.57% and the Hang Seng index dropped 4.52%.