Crypto Market

BTC and ETH Market Insight

After opening the week with modest gain and climbed back to the $65K resistance level, the market faced a correction toward the weekend and erased hopes of touching $70K in the short term. The correction was mainly driven by several factors, including the U.S. jobless claims report, a new round of trade policies, and geopolitical escalation.

The released U.S. initial jobless claims report acted as a major bearish catalyst that caused the crypto market to start backtracking.The report stated that claims dropped by 22,000, this ‘good’ job data caught the market off guard as a tight labor market erases the assumption that the Fed will act followingly to rescue the economy by injecting liquidity and instead point forwards of tightening it. As a result, Bitcoin (BTC) immediately pulled back by over 2.2% within hours of the release, alongside the total crypto market capitalization during the de-risking flush.

While the market was still digesting this strong employment data, attention shifted directly to the new rounds of 12.5% global tariffs announced by the U.S that target international economies. The announcement caused massive liquidation in major global stock indices, which eventually dried up demand in the crypto market as investors once again favored capital preservation.

Lastly, the tensions between Iran and the US were once again being put on the table as both parties' military forces exchanged attacks in the Gulf. However, the actual impact on the market appears increasingly contained after the ceasefire has already been violated numerous times, and this time the market came prepared for the worst, as war-ending and re-escalating news is no longer a surprise.

Upcoming Macro Calendar - Source: Trading Economics

Options Market

Over the past week, spot prices remained range-bound, with BTC trading around $65,000 and ETH near $1,900. Implied volatility ticked higher across short tenors, with BTC 1W ATM IV rising from ~33.0% last week to ~36.8% and ETH 1W IV increasing to ~48.9%. This move may reflect positioning ahead of next week’s FOMC minutes. Meanwhile realized volatility moderated further (BTC RV ~27.1%, ETH RV ~33.5%), resulting in a solidly positive volatility risk premium. Skew stayed moderately bearish but moved mixed, with BTC 25Δ 1W skew rising to ~12.1 vol points while ETH 25Δ 1W skew eased further to ~5.2 vol points. ETF netflows were mixed, with some outflows pressuring sentiment.

Altcoins and Blockchain News

• Decentralized hedge fund Numerai announced the completion of its third strategic Numeraire (NMR) buyback, purchasing $1.2 million worth of NMR from the open market. This brings its cumulative buyback volume over the past year to $3.2 million.
  
  
• US-based visual reasoning AI startup Elorian completed a $55 million seed funding round, reaching a post-money valuation of $300 million.
  
  
• Data shows that since the beginning of 2024, Pump.fun has cumulatively sold approximately 4.812 million SOL, valued at around $812 million, with an average selling price of about $168.7 per SOL.
  
  
• French regulatory authority ANJ stated on July 17 that Polymarket's website will be blocked within France, following the agency's previous ban on financial transactions to the site in November 2024.
  
  
• According to Alchemy data, developer activity on Robinhood Chain has risen to second place among public blockchains, trailing only Ethereum.
  
  
• Crypto.com announced that it has secured a $400 million strategic investment from global market maker Citadel Securities at a post-money valuation of $20 billion. This marks the company's first institutional funding since its inception a decade ago.
  
  
• Base announced in a post (correcting "ase") that the Base Ecosystem Fund is scouting for builders in the global on-chain finance sector. The fund will provide selected projects with pre-seed and seed funding, along with ongoing support from the Base team.
  
  

Macro

The major indices finished the week lower with a sharp rise in crude oil price: the DJIA slipped 0.38%, the S&P 500 fell 0.61% and the Nasdaq lost 2.13%. The Chinese stock market finished the week with solid gains: the Shanghai Composite Index added 1.33%, the CSI 300 index advanced 2.65%, and the Hang Seng Index gained 1.63%.