Crypto Market

BTC and ETH Market Insight

This week's labor market data, with slightly higher NFP and lower unemployment, suggests a strong job market, decreasing the likelihood of rate cuts. Recent news on stock tokenization suggests the emergence of a 24/7 global equity market via regulated wrappers on Solana and Arbitrum. Despite significant market volatility and profit-taking, the bull structure remains solid with strong support between $93,000 and $100,000, while selling pressure is decreasing and Bitcoin supply held by long-term holders has reached an all-time high.

Upcoming Macro Calendar - Source: Trading Economics

Options Market

BTC and ETH remained range-bound, posting modest weekly gains. Realized volatility continued to decline, with BTC's 7-day at-the-money implied volatility dropping to 28%, pushing volatility carry trades into negative territory and challenging short-volatility strategies. ETH's implied volatility held a 20-25 volatility point premium over BTC for the same maturities. Put skew was rather steady with front-end put skew moving a bit higher on the retracement. The ETHBTC pair rebounded to 0.024, driven by corporate treasury accumulation of ETH, highlighting its relative strength amid growing institutional interest.

Altcoins and Blockchain News

• Toncoin partners with UAE to offer 10-year golden visas to TON stakers.
• Turkey blocks access to PancakeSwap, first-ever sanction on a DEX.
• Circle applies for US bank charter to custody USDC reserves.
• Kazakhstan plans to establish a national cryptocurrency reserve.
• US SEC issues new cryptocurrency ETF guidelines.
• Total crypto project financing in H1 2025 reaches $10.3 billion, exceeding full year 2024.
• PayPal co-founder and other tech billionaires plan to establish Erebor Bank to serve crypto and AI startups, Erebor plans to include stablecoins on its balance sheet.
• Robinhood plans to launch its own blockchain and introduce "stock tokens" in the EU.

Macro

The major indexes continued the rally for the week: the DJIA added +2.3%, the S&P 500 +1.7%, and the Nasdaq +1.6%. The Chinese stocks also finished a second consecutive week at the beginning of Q3: the Shanghai Composite Index added +1.08%, the CSI 300 +1.18%, while the Hang Seng index lost 0.88%.